Understanding the difference between the European and the American Weather Models

The "European weather model" seen on TV forecasts originates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), an independent, intergovernmental organization established in 1975 to create accurate, medium-range weather forecasts by pooling European meteorological resources. The ECMWF's forecast system, known as the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), uses advanced numerical weather prediction techniques and significant supercomputing power to simulate atmospheric behavior and is a competitor to the American GFS model. 

The ECMWF operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe, crucial for running the complex mathematical models that predict weather. 

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• Data Assimilation:

  
  

  The IFS incorporates vast amounts of observational data, including satellite and aircraft data, to improve the accuracy of its forecasts. 

  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

• Public Exposure:

  
  

  The model gained significant public attention after its accurate forecasting of Hurricane Sandy's track in 2012, highlighting its predictive capabilities to a broader audience, according to The Washington Post. 

  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

• Accuracy:

  
  

  The European model has developed a strong reputation for its accuracy, particularly in medium-range forecasting, making it a widely referenced resource. 

  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

For major companies, there is an expensive version available, but a scaled-down free version is available to the public.

Generally more accurate

The European model (ECMWF) is generally considered more accurate due to higher resolution and greater computational power, while the American model (GFS) is more accessible and runs more frequently, providing different types of weather forecasts, including specific hurricane tracking. Key differences include the ECMWF's superior data assimilation, non-hydrostatic physics, and finer grid size, leading to better performance on large-scale patterns and terrain, whereas the GFS is a hydrostatic model that is better at short-to-medium range forecasts and offers a wider range of global weather data.

Accuracy in certain instances

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The European model (ECMWF) is generally considered more accurate than the American GFS model, especially for medium-range and long-range forecasts. However, the GFS model has shown instances where it was more accurate in predicting specific events, such as the development of Tropical Storm Dorian, and is sometimes better tuned for U.S. hurricane forecasting. The accuracy of each model can vary depending on the specific weather phenomenon, the region, and the timeframe of the forecast. 

Al Roker compares European and American weather models

Roker's comparisons have centered on the observed differences in accuracy, particularly during major storms. Reporting on the topic has often noted that: 

• The ECMWF model's predictions have frequently been more accurate than the U.S. model.

• This disparity was most famously demonstrated by Hurricane Sandy, where the European model correctly predicted the storm's sharp turn towards the New Jersey coastline.

• The perceived difference in accuracy has been attributed to the European model's greater computational power and a research-driven institutional structure.