Is climate change real?

Snow twice in Greenville this winter.

That has locals talking. Residents ask, What’s going on? Ice this far South is rare.

Arctic blasts and ice are added to the dreary mix. That’s different, you heard neighbors talking. Are these conclusions subjective?

What does the evidence say? Send your comments to sources@whatsupnews.online

Increasingly, the impacts of human-caused climate change, combined with natural climate variations and complex atmospheric dynamics, said the National Weather Service and its parent organization NOAA.

The Role of Climate Change

• "Future No Longer Looks Like the Past": NWS Director Ken Graham notes that traditional forecasting, based on historical "normals," is becoming less reliable as climate change makes events more erratic and extreme.

• Increased Intensity and Frequency: Rising temperatures are fueling more severe events, such as hotter, longer-lasting heatwaves, more intense precipitation, and rapidly intensifying hurricanes.

• Warmer Atmosphere/Oceans: A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall. Similarly, warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean have driven more active, intense hurricane seasons. 

• Wavier Jet Streams: The jet stream—a band of strong wind high in the atmosphere that steers weather systems—is becoming "wavier". These waves (Rossby waves) can cause cold Arctic air to push far south while warm, moist air moves north, resulting in rapid, drastic temperature swings.

• Increased Instability: The NWS points to "steep lapse rates" (temperature decreasing rapidly with height) as a cause of increased atmospheric instability, which produces more severe thunderstorms.

• Local Interactions: Changes in land, such as drier soil due to a warming climate, can increase the transfer of heat from the ground to the air, making temperature swings more intense. 

• El Niño and La Niña (ENSO): The NWS cites the El Niño-Southern Oscillation as a primary driver of year-to-year variability, affecting global atmospheric circulation, jet stream positions, and storm tracks.

• Teleconnections: Large-scale pressure fluctuations, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), directly affect winter storm tracks, causing dramatic shifts in weather from New England to Europe. 

• Uncertainty: The NWS emphasizes that the earth-atmosphere system is inherently chaotic. Incomplete sampling of these complex processes means that as forecasts extend further into the future, uncertainty increases, leading to unexpected, sudden shifts in weather. 

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